Sector landscapes & moat deep dives
Open-ended research notes: moat analyses, thematic questions, sector maps. Less prescriptive than an equity tearsheet; more exploratory.
Who is positioned to win AI inference?
Multiple winners through 2028, not one. NVIDIA keeps the largest absolute share of inference value via Blackwell + CUDA + the Groq acquisition, but its share compresses as hyperscaler captive silicon eats its own workloads and AMD wins the merchant #2 slot.
Does Cerebras Have a MOAT?
No durable economic moat — narrow technical wedge (peak single-user throughput) structurally constrained by GPU price compression (Blackwell now ~10–35× cheaper per token) and OpenAI MRA exclusivity that prevents diversification to other frontier labs.
Does NVIDIA Have a MOAT?
Yes — NVIDIA has a durable moat through this AI capex cycle, anchored by CUDA, rack-scale system integration, supply allocation, and the frontier pre-training position. The bear case is real but is about terminal-margin compression in 2028+, not near-term displacement.